Bush Plan To Stop Iran On Track

A recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluded that Iran had stopped its program to develop the mechanism of a nuclear weapon shortly after American troops entered Iraq. Many doubted the validity of this information, including some intelligence agencies in western Europe and in Israel. If true, it really does not offer much relief from concerns about a country that has been engaged in extensive state-supported terrorism throughout the middle east since the invasion of our embassy and the kidnapping of our diplomats in 1979 and engages in almost daily threats to bring death to America and incinerate Israel.

A main reason for continued concern is that developing a mechanism for housing and detonating a nuclear weapon is only one third of the equation, and is the easiest to restart and finish quickly. Iran is still proceeding full bore on the other two necessities – enriching uranium to possibly weapons grade, and building and testing missile delivery systems.

One of the fears of military planners is that Iran will complete its development in secret and then use its capability to blackmail oil producers and U.S. allies within reach of a nuclear-tipped missile arsenal – as well as threaten U.S. forces.

Without much fanfare the Bush Administration has been taking steps to counter this threat. It has developed plans for an anti-missile system to be located in Poland that could detect and bring down Iranian-launched missiles. Under duress from Russia, which opposes these plans, Poland recently approved siting these defensive missiles within its country, and work can begin. Other Eastern European countries have also come forward with support for this installation.

We remember President Reagan’s installation of “Peacemakers” in Europe as one of the final straws that broke the back of the old Soviet Union.

Crouch and Joseph on the Next Tough Steps for Missile Defense Policy

January 22, 2008 MissileThreat.com (Excerpt)

“In today's Wall Street Journal former Deputy National Security Adviser J.D. Crouch, II and former Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph call for a bold and firm approach to ballistic missile defense and to space-based interceptors in particular. In "Tough Calls, Good Calls," Crouch and Joseph liken the Bush administration's decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty and to begin to deploy ballistic missile defense system to other tough choices guided by strategic foresight which have since been proven sound. Crouch and Joseph point out that critics objecting to the ABM Treaty withdrawal predicted consequences of gloom and doom which never materialized, such as a new arms race. "None of these things have happened as a result of the ABM Treaty withdrawal. But the decision will enable us to counter a still-growing 21st century threat."

Crouch and Joseph go on to argue that important, and "tough calls" remain for ballistic missile defense policy and the next presidential administration. These steps include the European third-site for Ground-Based Interceptors, measures to combat countermeasures by North Korea and Iran, the development of multiple-kill vehicles, enhanced sea-based defenses, and finally space-based interceptors:

What are the next steps that the country should take to capitalize fully on this strategic choice?

First, the president's call for a third strategic missile defense site in Europe must be carried out. This site provides additional capability to protect the U.S., and to protect as well our European allies from a growing Iranian missile threat. The site would further cement the development of a global sensor-and-interceptor network necessary for effective missile defense. Failure to follow through would have implications for our alliances both inside and out of Europe.”

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Poland Says It Has Agreed to US Shield
By DESMOND BUTLER
Associated Press Feb 1 08 (Excerpt)

WASHINGTON (AP) - "Poland said Friday it has reached an agreement in principle with the United States on plans to install a missile defense system on Polish territory.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski says that after meetings with U.S. officials, he is satisfied that the United States will deal with security problems that Poland wanted addressed as part of an eventual deal.

The announcement should add momentum to a project the Bush administration has said it hopes to start building this year. The project, a major source of tension with Russia, had looked stalled since the Polish government of Donald Tusk sought new demands after taking office in November.

Sikorski did not outline the terms of the deal, but in a joint appearance with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after a working lunch, the two officials suggested that the U.S. would help with Polish air defenses, as Poland had sought."

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Lithuanian Foreign Minister Expresses Support for European Defenses
January 27, 2008 MissileThreat.com (Excerpt)

"Lithuanian Foreign Minister Petras Vaitiekunas announced his country's support of the United States' plan to station missile defense systems in Eastern Europe. The announcement came while the Foreign Minister was meeting with the Czech Republic's Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg on January 25. Vaitekunas said Lithuania would support incorporating the system with NATO defense. Russia strongly opposes the U.S.'s plan, believing it is intended to blunt Moscow's influence in the region. As a former republic of the Soviet Union, Lithuania's expression of support for the American-sponsored defenses is likely to irritate their Russian former masters."