Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Good News for Mitt Romney

Although Republican conservatives are chagrined that Florida might propel Senator McCain to the nomination, it's not over yet. In a state heavily populated by military and retired-military voters, McCain and Romney actually appear to have tied among Republicans.

Was Florida a Closed Primary Or Not?
January30, 2008 (Excerpt)

"In my attempts to self-soothe in the wake of Romney's Florida defeat, I'm poring over the details of the exit polling in search of encouraging morsels, thus far with sporadic success. Mitt beat McCain soundly among conservatives (37-29), among "issues" voters (35-27), and even edged him out among voters for whom terrorism was the most important issue (29-26).

One breakout that puzzles me though is the vote share by party identification. Romney and McCain were tied among Republicans at 33-33, while McCain won independents 44-23. (See page 4 of the exit poll.)

If I'm reading the poll correctly, it suggests 17% of Republican primary voters identified themselves as having no major party affiliation, while 3% identified themselves as registered Democrats.

One of the features of the Florida primary that was supposed to distinguish it from the other contests to date was that it was a closed primary, meaning only party-registered voters could vote in their respective primaries. This was one of those alluring intangibles that hinted at a Romney advantage relative to the earlier open primaries.

And indeed, the exit polling suggests that Romney likely matched McCain among Republicans in Florida (rounded to the nearest percentage point). From where I'm sitting, it appears Mitt RomneyMitt-Romney-MBA Sep-07 might've won the Florida primary.

Despite my support for Romney, I'm loathe to hunt for extra innings in this or any contest. That's a game usually better left to the Gores, Kuciniches, Paulnuts, and the other dark-minded conspiracy buffs of the world. And to be clear, I'm not suggesting conspiracy is afoot, only that Florida's record of electoral execution is... well, checkered. You don't have to conspire to screw something up in order to screw something up."

Exit poll cited is at this link


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At 5:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, we know that Florida screwed up an election once.

At 7:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope that you're right on that, Russ. McCain is a weasel who kisses up to Liberals. Having him for a president would be as bad as having a Clinton or an Obama. You'd probably see John Kerry in his cabinet, and what a nightmare that would be!


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